2013年6月29日 星期六

現實政治

香港人正在議論紛紛,何時由全部選民普選特首。

現代的民主制度之下,有些國家由全民一人一票選政府首長,如大家首先會想起的美國。不過有些國家,是由執政黨的領袖,當然擔任的。至於怎樣能夠成為「執政黨」,當然是政黨派代表出來競選議員,全民投票之後數人頭,那個政黨在國會的席位佔多數就是了。

香港的特首呢,依照基本法,不能屬於任何政黨----雖然很多人懷疑梁振英有地下共產黨員的身份!上一段講的兩種呢,美國容許代表政黨的候選人,和不屬任何政黨的獨立候選人競選總統(實際上沒有獨立候選人當選過),英國、澳洲、加拿大、新加坡等就一定是政黨人士擔任「總理」了。


英國、澳洲、加拿大、新加坡等國家的總理,嚴格來說,是由「間接選舉」產生,但是他是由一人一票普選產生的議員推舉的,所以也有一定的「國民認受性」。

執政黨議員擁戴其領袖,通常是一屆任期內貫徹始終,但這並不是絕對的;總理在任內遭遇「籠裡雞作反」,黨內投票推倒現任總理另立新君的事,也並不罕見!

澳洲在上世紀80-90年代由工黨執政,連任多屆的總理Bob Hawke,最後便是在任內給自己的財政部長Paul Keating發動黨內投票,奪權成為總理。

想不到20年後 ,工黨再度上演這個劇目。

話說2007年Kevin Rudd率領在野的工黨,取代執政了幾屆的自由黨/國家黨聯盟,就任總理之初,一度還是澳洲有史以來民望最高的總理。想不到在2010年任期尚餘幾個月,正預備下屆大選之際,竟然會陰溝裡翻船。他有數項政策失誤,致令民望下跌,下屬怕下次大選時工黨會被他拖累落敗;也有人說是Rudd剛愎自用,和下屬關係搞得很惡劣,給副總理Julia Gillard乘機以同一技倆推倒,取而代之。

這是很大的恥辱,Rudd失去總理寶座,還是國會議員身份,但馬上要坐到後排;當時記者特意拍了他獨坐無人在旁的照片,那種落寞之情.....

更想不到的是,距離今年9月14日的大選不足三個月,在本星期三,Rudd成功再發動「宮廷政變」!查實這三年來已有過兩次,一次硬拼因不夠票敗陣,第二次不夠票臨陣退縮----今次卒之以57票對45票,取代Julia Gillard。這個攤牌決鬥之中,當然是牽涉到有「叛徒」倒戈的情況,真是現實政治的寫照了。

有人直覺懷疑Julia Gillard這個澳洲第一個女總理,會不會是在政壇受到澳洲的男性沙文主義的排擠?我則認為不是,因為倒戈的黨代表之中,有很多是女性,其中包括Gillard的得力助手,財務部長Penny Wong!

為甚麼會這樣?我在前天的文章答網友的留言,概括了我的看法:

Kevin Rudd選民人緣好,黨內關係差。
Julia Gillard選民人緣極差,黨內關係比較好(一點而已)。
上次Gillard擠Rudd下台,上任以來民望插水,工黨已經預了下屆會輸,但如果由Gillard領導競選,會輸到仆街,輸去很多席位,權衡輕重,乃要回Rudd,起碼多幾個工黨議員有得撈。
分析家Antony Green估計,9月大選,工黨的機會,由大輸提升至50%。 


以其人之道,還其人之身,相隔時間還是這麼短,真的出人意表,值得一記。

落敗的和得勝雙方,都表現出君子風度,不打落水狗,這是民主的好處:







(文章允許轉貼,請具作者名字:梁煥松)
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15 則留言:

  1. Politicians can be trusted, pigs can fly, man!

    ALP has to lose for they have not done enough as a ruling party. Though Libs may not be good either, it is still an alternative; we don't have to just stick to faking labors. And, of course much much better than one-party regime like faking china, man!!!

    Here in Aust, we badly need a 3rd political force like people's party of Aust with statesmen and an alternative nation rebuilding plan incling viable implementation strategies based on sustainable development. Or, we can only live under this vicious cycle, though most of us, our generation, comparatively won't have much time to see such change, man.

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    1. 原本有的Democrats,可以擔當你講的第三勢力,可惜自己散了。

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    2. don't mean that kind of 3rd party, man; just being there to try to "keep the bastards honest" proved not to be enough, man!

      we badly need a 3rd political force like the people's party of Aust with statesmen, alternative nation rebuilding plan with viable implementation strategies along the line of sustainable development...they must be ready to take power really working it out for the people who deserve it, man!!!

      at the moment, none on this god-damned world got any idea about it, man, and Rudd just being one among them!!

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    3. keeping the bastards honest proved not enough, man. got to be prepared to win election, take power before being able to really work for the people herein, who deserve a responsible govt, man!

      to do this, we need at least a statesman like Ghandi, Dr King etc., with an alternative nation rebuilding plan and viable implementation strategies based on sustainable development from a start.

      Rudd is not a statesman yet; so either Labs or Libs won't do any good to this country until and unless a statesman emerges and political awareness among the public enhanced too, man!!!

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    4. 「政治家」Statesman,100年也出不到幾個。
      有幹實事的政客,已經是謝天謝地了---可惜都是稀有動物。

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  2. I think one major issue is her disloyalty to her leader. KRudd was so popular and was voted in by a huge majority just not long ago before the coup. People hated her and the faceless men for the back stabbing. She simply lost the respect of the people and hence her consistent low poll results. Rarely a deputy would knife her leader, she is supposed to defend her leader as a team-mate. Any other challenger from the caucus is a different matter. Keating/Hawke case is very different too, Hawke was expected to hand over the top job to Keating but hanged on for too long, Keating had no option but challenge.

    Power really corrupts a person. Gillard could have gone by herself graciously and kept her job. But she was stubborn and selfish. Her lack of judgement is shown in her gamble of "all or nothing" pledge before the caucus vote. People who cannot see the reality are not fit for the job as a national leader. After the loss, she still did not admit her faults but blamed on the gender issue instead. No tears should be shed on her downfall.

    BTW, Libs should bring back Malcolm, mad monk is unelectable. As Abbot's biggest threat, he was put into this difficult task of formulating an alternative plan to NBN. Actually he has no choice but to embrace the NBN, otherwise they could lose on this single issue alone, especially now Kevin is back. If future polls show Labor in a winning position, Libs could panic and Malcolm could return. Then that would be a really interesting election!

    No matter what, I'm for Kevin.



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    1. Tony Abbot 也是選民人緣差之輩,否則自由黨在上屆大選已經回朝了。
      Malcolm Turnbull 比他好,但黨齡太淺,站不住領袖之位。

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  3. 香港而家既選民當中以溝了不少共國人, 我對所謂普選也不抱太大期望就是了.

    不過七一我仍會出來行一行... 唉... FB群組的人很多都想移民離開... 灰

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  4. kwok博友,

    >>>香港而家既選民當中以溝了不少共國人

    呢個不嬲都係共產黨強項,但我最唔明點解有咁多香港人係'97前好似鬼掩眼咁,猛為強迫回歸手舞足蹈興奮狂叫熱列投入,除咗個啲紅色大肥貓或從中混水揾錢班牛鬼蛇神緊係要咁做之外(十佔八九已入外籍),為何當時有機會唔 say 沙喲嗱哪,對共產黨有期望,到今時今日都係話大統一係必須,真係難救。

    記得陶傑係一集光明頂話過,家下啲八九十後查實要問下佢地父母,當年為何走得唔走,攪到現在咁金,尤其對年輕一代來講真係前/錢景無望,政治斷絕。

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  5. 香港人走不到的佔了絕大多數,現在是垂死掙札,不讓梁振英的阿爺以為是老奉吧了。

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  6. Kevin 好熟中國國情,對澳洲經濟非常有幫助。Juila 今期撞正經濟差,真無運行..
    NZ 國家黨一上場後就經濟差,加GST,減勞工福利..
    Chris 你會選變個 ?

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    1. 我一直是投工黨的。

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  7. The economist用的title好有意思:We need to talk about Kevin--Again

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    1. Tony Abbott is the most worried man in Australia!

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    2. xiaohua下午9:01

      我一直觉得Tony最大的缺点就是:样衰,很难想象他可以代表一个国家啊

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